Machine Learning Models for Predicting Mechanical Properties of FRP-Confined Concrete Columns Across Low- to Ultra-High-Strength Concrete

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis and predictive modeling framework for the axial compressive strength (fcc) and ultimate axial strain (εcu) of concrete columns confined within fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) systems. Large databases comprising 3312 samples for fcc and 3319 for εcu were compiled from the literature, encompassing a wide range of key variables, including unconfined concrete strength from 7 MPa to 204 MPa and diverse FRP confinement configurations. The datasets were subjected to extensive statistical and multivariate analyses to identify the primary factors influencing axial behavior and guide feature selection for predictive modeling. Three groups of machine learning (ML) algorithms were subsequently considered: (i) artificial neural networks (including multilayer perceptrons with one and two hidden layers), (ii) kernel-based models (Gaussian process regression and support vector regression), and (iii) tree-based ensemble models (gradient boosting machine, eXtreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine). Hyperparameters were optimized using grid search cross-validation, while feature importance analyses were performed to quantify the contribution of each input variable. Among all ML models, eXtreme gradient boosting demonstrated superior predictive performance, effectively capturing the nonlinear and multivariate interactions governing confinement effectiveness. Comparative analysis with the top performing regression-based formulations further highlighted the accuracy, robustness, and generalization capability of the eXtreme gradient boosting model. The findings provide a data-driven and interpretable framework for the design and prediction of FRP-confined concrete columns.