Machine learning and multi-omics clustering to map cellular rewiring and immune evasion in ccRCC

Abstract

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) efficacy in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is limited by tumor microenvironment (TME) heterogeneity. Because traditional bulk-derived models lack spatial resolution, we developed an integrated framework connecting macroscopic survival risks to microscopic TME structures. We applied ten algorithms to establish multi-omics subtypes and evaluated 101 machine-learning combinations across three independent cohorts to generate a Consensus Machine Learning-driven Signature (CMLS). The signature’s spatial and cellular origins were decoded using spatial transcriptomics (ST) and a 140,000-cell scRNA-seq atlas. Expression of key genes was experimentally validated via RT-qPCR in 17 paired ccRCC clinical tissues. We identified two molecular subtypes with distinct clinical and epigenetic profiles. SuperPC optimization yielded a 24-gene CMLS serving as an independent prognostic factor. scRNA-seq and ST deconvolution revealed these signals predominantly originate from cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) and malignant epithelial cells, which collaborate to drive spatial immune exclusion. RT-qPCR confirmed significant overexpression of five core CMLS genes in ccRCC versus adjacent normal tissues. Low CMLS scores correlated with enhanced ICB responsiveness, whereas high-CMLS tumors demonstrated specific vulnerability to dasatinib and dabrafenib. The CMLS translates spatial immune-exclusion dynamics into a quantifiable metric, outperforming tumor mutational burden in predicting ICB benefits, providing a robust tool for patient stratification in ccRCC.