Forecasting viral evolution from phylogenetic trees
TL;DR
This work introduces antiGen, a machine learning model that forecasts the evolutionary future of viruses by learning from their evolutionary past, and achieves state-of-the-art performance for predicting mutations to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.
Abstract
Viral mutation forecasting plays a key role in pandemic preparedness by enabling researchers to anticipate novel variants and design proactive interventions. Evolutionary histories, represented as phylogenetic trees, offer key insights into the emergence of past and present strains, yet their role in predicting future sequence changes remains largely unexplored. We introduce antiGen, a machine learning model that forecasts the evolutionary future of viruses by learning from their evolutionary past. antiGen achieves state-of-the-art performance for predicting mutations to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, anticipating never-before-seen mutations and mutations that emerge years after the model’s training window. antiGen-forecasted spike mutations also retain pseudoviral infectivity in vitro. Moreover, antiGen demonstrates leading predictive performance on surface proteins of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, and dengue virus despite far less available sequencing data. Viral evolution models that explicitly learn from phylogenetic structure offer a valuable resource for applications ranging from epidemiological modeling to therapeutic development.