Burden dynamics of pulmonary arterial hypertension in China and the G20 aggregate: a comparative analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2023

Abstract

Abstract Background Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) causes substantial premature mortality and disability. Updated evidence comparing long-term PAH burden in China with the Group of Twenty (G20) aggregate remains limited. We assessed changes from 1990 to 2023 and projected future trends. Methods PAH estimates for China and the G20 aggregate were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. Outcomes included incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs), expressed as absolute counts and age-standardized rates. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression. Sex-specific and age-specific patterns and demographic decomposition were examined. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models projected overall burden through 2050. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models projected sex-specific patterns through 2038. Results From 1990 to 2023, incident and prevalent cases and YLDs increased in both settings, whereas deaths, DALYs, and YLLs declined. In China, prevalent cases increased by 63.5%, from 17,020.87 to 27,834.41, while the age-standardized death rate decreased by 74.3%, from 0.29 to 0.08 per 100,000 population. Similar declines in mortality-related age-standardized indicators occurred in the G20 aggregate. Females generally had higher age-standardized prevalence and YLD rates than males, although sex differences in mortality-related outcomes varied by setting. Absolute burden shifted toward older age groups. Population growth and aging contributed to increases in absolute burden, whereas epidemiological change generally acted in the opposite direction. Projections suggested continued declines in age-standardized mortality-related burden through 2050, alongside increases in incident and prevalent case numbers. Conclusion Mortality-related PAH burden declined in China and the G20 aggregate, while absolute case numbers increased. Population growth and aging contributed to this divergence, underscoring the need for continued surveillance and long-term health-service planning.