Temporal Trends and Future Projections of Occupational Asthma and Lung Cancer in Southeast Asia: Insights From the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2021.

AIMS/

Background

Exposure to occupational hazards remains a significant driver of asthma- and lung cancer-related morbidity and mortality, particularly in rapidly industrializing regions such as Southeast Asia. However, comprehensive assessments of long-term regional trends and future projections of occupational respiratory diseases remain limited. This study aimed to evaluate the temporal dynamics of occupational asthma and occupational lung cancer burden in Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2021 and to project future trends through 2035.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to assess mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to occupational asthma and lung cancer in Southeast Asia. To enhance model validation, additional metrics, including the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), were applied, together with K-fold cross-validation to assess model generalizability. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of findings under alternative assumptions.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardised DALY rate of occupational asthma declined by 33.45%, although the absolute number of DALYs increased due to population growth and ageing. In contrast, occupational lung cancer exhibited a persistent upward trend in both absolute burden and age-standardised rates, with older men disproportionately affected. Decomposition analyses identified that population ageing and population growth were the key contributors to the overall increase in disease burden. Projections through 2035 suggest that asthma-related burden will continue to decrease, whereas occupational lung cancer burden is expected to increase further.

Conclusion

Although age-standardised rates of occupational asthma have improved, the overall burden remains substantial, largely due to population growth and ageing, which continue to place considerable pressure on occupational health systems.