Health impacts of national and local air pollution control policies targeting electric generating units, mobile sources, and port activities in three US cities

Abstract

Objective: Over the past decades, US policies intended to reduce air pollution emissions from electric generating units (EGUs), mobile sources (e.g., cars and trucks), and port activities have been implemented to improve air quality. This study aimed to estimate and compare counterfactual air pollution concentrations (i.e., concentrations that would have occurred without these policies) to observed concentrations, and then evaluate the health impacts of such policies in New York City, Los Angeles, and Atlanta from 2005 to 2019. Materials and Methods: We obtained data on respiratory emergency department (ED) visits and cardiovascular disease ED visits that result in hospitalizations for the three cities from 2005-2019. Daily concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), criteria gases [carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3)], and 1-in-3-day measured concentrations of PM2.5 components and PM sources estimated using positive matrix factorization were acquired from six monitoring sites in the three cities. To estimate health impacts of selected EGU, mobile, and port policies we estimated: 1) counterfactual daily pollutant concentrations at each of the 6 city-sites; 2) associations between daily pollutant concentrations and rates of cardiorespiratory visits using city-site specific multi-pollutant Poisson models; and 3) the percent of cardiorespiratory visits prevented by the implementation of the selected policies, through applying observed and counterfactual concentrations to the fitted health models. Results: Air quality policies were estimated to reduce ambient pollutant concentrations across the three cities, with median PM2.5 reductions of 27%-62% due to all policies combined during 2005-2019. Changes in criteria-pollutant concentrations associated with the selected policies were estimated to avert 7.1% (95% UI: 5.4%, 8.9%) of respiratory visits in New York City, 2.4% (95% UI: 1.4%, 3.4%) in Los Angeles, and 4.5% (95% UI: 0.8%, 8.2%) in Atlanta. In addition, 2.6% (95% UI: 0.9%, 4.2%) and 1.2% (95% UI: 0.3%, 2.1%) of cardiovascular visits were averted in New York City and Los Angeles, while the estimate in Atlanta did not indicate cardiovascular visits averted. Conclusion: The selected EGU, mobile-source, and port policies evaluated during 2005-2019 were estimated to reduce ambient pollutant concentrations and avert respiratory visits in all three cities and cardiovascular visits in New York City and Los Angeles.