Integrated assessment of air pollution dynamics and health impacts in Myanmar: Evidence from ground monitoring, satellite observations, and modeling.

Abstract

Least Developed Countries (LDCs), such as Myanmar, experience disproportionately high air pollution burdens due to limited regulatory capacity, inadequate monitoring, and political instability. This study provides a multi-source assessment of air pollution dynamics and potential health impacts in Myanmar, combining ground-based monitoring, satellite observations, and statistical modeling to inform evidence-based policymaking. Ground-based data (2019-2024) from two monitoring stations in Yangon revealed an average PM2.5 concentration of 24.4 μg/m3 (SD = 18.6), with the highest seasonal mean in winter (39.4 μg/m3; November-February). Analysis of particulate matter (PM) components showed high contributions of sulfate (SO42-) in both winter and summer, followed by nitrate (NO3-) in winter and Ca2+ in summer. A health impact assessment estimated that compliance with the WHO PM2.5 guideline (5 μg/m3) could have prevented 2,106 (95% confidence interval 345-3,818) premature deaths (aged ≥ 30) annually in Yangon during 2020-2021. A generalized additive model revealed that relative humidity and wind speed were significantly associated with PM2.5, whereas the daily maximum 8 h average (MDA8) O3 showed a limited meteorological association with relative humidity. National daily means of TROPOMI HCHO and NO2 were strongly correlated (Pearson's r = 0.754; p = 0.001), and HCHO/NO2 ratios indicated predominantly NOx-sensitive regimes across Myanmar. These findings suggest that O3 air quality can be substantially improved by reducing NOx emissions. Despite Myanmar's limited data, this study provides a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of air pollution hotspots and their associated health burdens, thereby informing targeted emission control strategies.