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2,518 papers

#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

LOCO-AdaMP: Built-in LOCO Inference for Adaptive Minipatch Ensembles with Enhanced Prediction

As black-box machine learning models become increasingly common, extracting interpretations with uncertainty quantification has become a critical challenge. One popular type of interpretation is leave-one-covariate-out (LOCO) feature importance, while prior LOCO inference methods often require data-splitting or model-r...

Yinan Cheng, Lili Zheng · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Finite-Sample Theory for Fitted Q-Iteration When Actions Are Functions

Offline reinforcement learning seeks optimal decision rules from previously collected data. In some applications, a decision can be an entire function, such as a fluence map in radiation therapy or a smooth movement trajectory in robotics. In this paper, we study the finite-sample theory for fitted Q-iteration (FQI) wi...

Ge-Fei Lin, Rui Miao, Xiao-Ke Zhang · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

One-Step Next-Latent Prediction Is Not a World Model

Next-latent prediction fits a map from the current embedding to the next one. LeNEPA carries this objective to time series, replacing the stop-gradient of next-embedding prediction with the isotropy penalty of LeJEPA. A world model is a transition kernel that can be rolled out. The one-step regression identifies a cond...

Shi-Tong Wang, Zhongang Cai, Yu Hong · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Wasserstein Causal Forests for Distribution-Valued Outcomes

This paper proposes Wasserstein Causal Forests (WCF) for settings in which each unit's outcome is itself a probability distribution. This study also defines finite-grid transformed average and conditional average treatment effects, including a reference-distance contrast that asks whether treatment moves unit-level dis...

H. G. Souto · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Traversing the solution space of neural networks with Hessian Null Space Continuation

On a single task, deep networks can learn many solutions, depending on their optimizer, training data, architecture, and hyperparameters. Many of these solutions are mode-connected: rather than isolated points in weight space, they are connected by low-loss regions. Yet how their internal computation varies within thes...

Ann C. Huang, Mitchell Ostrow, Zhou-Yang Lu et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

When do data mixtures improve scaling laws? Insights from high-dimensional regression

Modern machine learning systems are trained on mixtures of data from different domains, and choosing the right mixture can substantially improve downstream performance. Despite an extensive literature on data mixing and reweighting, existing work is largely empirical and it remains unclear when auxiliary data genuinely...

Di-Yuan Wu, Le-Han Chen, Theodor Misiakiewicz et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Search Dimension in Unlabeled Projection Pursuit: A Scaling Law for Subspace Restriction

Projection pursuit searches for a direction along which the data look least Gaussian. When the observation space contains a large Gaussian complement, the empirical objective can be minimized by a direction that carries no signal, with empirical kurtosis as low as at the truth. Sample splitting exposes rather than repa...

Rares Dimitrie Grozavescu, Mark Girolami · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Counterfactual Probing for Parallel Unmasking with Hidden Forest Structure

Masked generative models offer parallel token prediction, but accurate parallel sampling must account for dependencies among tokens. When dependencies are unknown, finding safe batches also costs model evaluations. We study whether total evaluations, including discovery, can be sublinear in sequence length $N$; subline...

Ryotaro Kawata, Satoshi Hayakawa, Taiji Suzuki · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Physical Muon: Orthogonalization as an Equilibrium Computation

Physical neural networks and analog in-memory computing could reduce the energy cost of neural network training. Realizing this potential, however, requires optimizers that combine effective learning with physical implementability. SGD fits local analog updates but struggles on transformers, while Adam family is unstab...

Yuren Hao · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Probability Contracts: Accuracy, Coherence, and Decisions Across LLM Interfaces

Equivalent probability requests can lead to different decisions even when both reports are valid. We introduce probability contracts, a benchmark that connects exact finite-world posteriors, validated event alignment, interface coherence, and failure-aware decision evaluation. Across four model-interface configurations...

Han-Xiu Chen, Ying-Rui Li · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

High-Dimensional Simulation-Based Inference in Latent Spaces

Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) has been widely successful in inferring a relatively small number of interpretable parameters from potentially high-dimensional observations, such as images or time series. Accordingly, representation learning in SBI has focused almost exclusively on compressing the observations...

Lars Kuhmichel, Stefan T. Radev, B. Koppolu et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Interacting particle guidance for sampling reward-tilted generative priors

Inference-time steering adapts pretrained diffusion and flow-based models to new tasks, e.g., to generate samples from a conditional distribution or samples with desired properties, without retraining. This can be formalized as sampling from a reward-tilted generative prior. As exact sampling from this distribution is...

Adhithyan Kalaivanan, Zheng Zhao, Jens Sjölund et al. · 0 citations

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Microsoft Research Blog Oct 6, 2026

What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us

Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity.  The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.

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