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2,518 papers
Randomized smoothing certifies the probability of a fixed output event as the center of Gaussian noise moves. Feasibility or confidence filtering reports label probabilities only among retained proposals, producing a ratio. Its numerator is a fixed Gaussian event mass, while its denominator is the probability of retent...
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) commonly adapt to new data by attaching a single trainable head to a frozen backbone, a one-size-fits-all setup that underfits heterogeneous regimes. Replacing the head with a mixture of experts is the standard upgrade, but on instance-normalized backbones (the dominant TSFM design...
Population loss can remain nearly constant while a neural network learns a substantially more predictive representation. We establish this separation for two-layer ReLU and leaky-ReLU networks trained on Gaussian inputs by simultaneous fixed-step population gradient descent on all parameters. For structured additive te...
Fairness assessment in algorithmic decisions that affect individuals, such as credit scoring, often relies on parity measures calculated at the aggregate group level. Such measures may not reveal which individuals experience unfairness or which explanatory factors contribute to it. In this paper, we propose a rank-base...
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Flow Matching (FM) learns a velocity field whose ODE transports a simple source distribution to a target law. Existing finite-sample theory largely treats ambient-space regularity or data supported exactly on low-dimensional sets. We study linear FM under a noisy latent-generator model, where a low-dimensional H\"older...
Augmenting small concurrent studies with external or historical cohorts is attractive in drug development, where enrollment is slow, follow-up is expensive, and closely related trial or real-world data are often already available. Bayesian dynamic borrowing (BDB) provides a principled framework for adaptively controlli...
When can we learn from biased samples? We study regression when outcomes are observed only after passing through selection filters that depend on both covariates and outcomes themselves, a ubiquitous challenge spanning clinical trials with patient dropout, labor markets with self-selection, and auctions with strategic...
Grokking shows that fitting the training data and learning the underlying signal can occur at very different stages. However, existing theories offer limited quantitative insight into how this delayed generalization depends on inductive bias and signal structure. Our work addresses the gap by developing a statistical t...
Random exploration reveals how an environment can be traversed before a goal is specified. Can this experience support long-range planning without policy-improvement training? Our random-walk analysis explains what temporal relations contain: short horizons reveal geodesic geometry in the diffusion limit, while longer...
Time series classification underpins applications in healthcare, sensing, and industrial monitoring. Although time series foundation models support forecasting and transferable representation learning, classification still typically requires fitting a task-specific classifier on each target dataset, while individual ch...
Classical universal approximation theorems (UAT) establish the expressive power of sigmoidal multilayer perceptrons, but they do not specify how the weights should be initialized. We study a supervised, data-dependent, geometry-aware initialization for one-hidden-layer sigmoidal MLPs that compiles labeled class geometr...
Principled regression for stochastic processes is a long-standing challenge with deep connections to scientific inverse problems. We introduce Flow Annealing Posterior Sampling (FLAPS), to our knowledge the first function-space posterior sampling framework that unifies stochastic-process regression and PDE inverse prob...
MIT Statistics and Data Science Center Director Alexander (Sasha) Rakhlin shares important considerations for departments and institutions.
By rethinking how large cloud computing systems operate, Associate Professor Christina Delimitrou seeks to make data centers more energy efficient.
As director, Bourg has focused on digital access, open and equitable scholarly publishing, and expanded support for data-intensive research.
Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity. The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.
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