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data science

2,430 papers

#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Contrastive Time Series Forecasting with Anomalies

Time series forecasting predicts future values from past data. In real-world settings, some anomalous events have lasting effects and influence the forecast, while others are short-lived and should be ignored. Standard forecasting models fail to make this distinction, often either overreacting to noise or missing persi...

Joel Ekstrand, Zahra Taghiyarrenani, Slawomir Nowaczyk · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Inverse Mixed-Integer Programming: Learning Constraints then Objective Functions

Data-driven inverse optimization for mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs), which seeks to learn an objective function and constraints consistent with observed decisions, is important for building accurate mathematical models in a variety of domains, including power systems and scheduling. However, to the best of our k...

Akira Kitaoka · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Neural Bayesian Filtering

Sequential estimation under partial observability requires tracking beliefs that may be high-dimensional, multimodal, and non-Gaussian. Classical Bayesian filters generalize zero-shot to any system whose dynamics can be evaluated, but their representations scale poorly: parametric filters struggle to capture multimodal...

Christopher Solinas, Radovan Haluska, David Sychrovsky et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

OCSVM-Guided Representation Learning for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection

Unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) aims to detect anomalies without labeled data, a necessity in many machine learning applications where anomalous samples are rare or not available. Most state-of-the-art methods fall into two categories: reconstruction-based approaches, which often reconstruct anomalies too well, an...

Nicolas Pinon (MYRIAD), Robin Trombetta (MYRIAD), Carole Lartizien (MYRIAD) · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Valid Stopping in Adaptive Generator-Verifier Loops

Numerous agentic workflows are based on a generator-verifier loop: a generator proposes candidates, a cheap verifier scores them, and the workflow terminates when a proposal is verified as good enough. The verifier typically proxies a more costly ground-truth oracle, and as the generator searches adaptively against it,...

Mahmoud Hegazy, Michael I. Jordan, Aymeric Dieuleveut · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Quantifying the Stability of Multi-Step Reasoning via Error Amplification

We consider the stability of multi-step reasoning processes, which have extensive applications in language models, including chain-of-thought and algorithmic reasoning. While longer sequences of reasoning can improve a model's generation capability at test time, the errors due to intermediate reasoning steps can accumu...

Dongyue Li, Ziniu Zhang, Minxuan Duan et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

When Are Concept Bottleneck Model Explanations Faithful and Compact?

Concept bottleneck models (CBMs) are neural classifiers that allow to explain their decisions via high-level concepts, potentially enabling understanding, steering and debugging. However, their explanations are often derived heuristically. Building on formal explainability, we argue they should also be faithful, i.e.,...

Stefano Teso, E. Marconato, Steve Azzolin et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Two-Sample Testing via Path-based Inference

Modern deep generative models are primarily studied for their ability to generate realistic samples, yet the generative dynamics they learn can also serve as objects of statistical inference. We develop this idea for two-sample testing, the problem of deciding whether the same distribution generated two finite datasets...

Eshant English, Wei-Cheng Lai, Yan-Feng Yang et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

G-CARB: Graph-Localized Conformal Agent Risk Budget for Compositional Harm

Small language model (SLM) agents need safety controls that track consequences across tool calls with little monitoring overhead. A private read, for example, becomes a leak when a later action sends that data outside the system. We introduce CARB (Conformal Agent Risk Budget), which calibrates when to stop an agent us...

Zi-Jun Yu, Yu-Tong Gu, Vahid Partovi Nia et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Coupling Noisy Pairwise Knowledge to the DAG Posterior for Causal Discovery

External causal reports can improve structure learning from limited observations, but their reliability varies across sources and variable pairs. We introduce HB-NoisyKG, a Bayesian framework that combines observational data with repeated causal reports from sources such as large language models. Each report is a noisy...

Guoliang Xu, James E Corter · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Risk-Calibrated Proposal Transport for Finite-Particle Diffusion Steering

Inference-time steering combines pretrained diffusion experts or rewards without retraining by changing the dynamics that transport noise to data. Feynman-Kac correction compensates for proposal mismatch through importance-weighted sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), whose finite-particle behavior depends on the proposal. Va...

Ziseok Lee, JaeHyeong Kim, Seungwon Kim et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

How RL Reshapes LLM Reasoning: Transferability, Coverage, and Scaling Laws

Recent studies on reinforcement learning (RL) report seemingly conflicting evidence about large language model (LLM) reasoning. Training on mathematics can improve performance in other domains, yet gains in Pass@1 can coincide with lower Pass@$N$ than the base model. This raises a fundamental question: does RL expand a...

Zi-Heng Cheng, Yi-Xiao Huang, Han-Lin Zhu et al. · 0 citations

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Microsoft Research Blog Oct 6, 2026

What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us

Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity.  The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.

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