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data science

2,653 papers

#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

TAP Accuracy Below the Fluctuation Scale and Universal Posterior Geometry in Spherical Linear Models

We study the Bayes-optimal spherical linear model as the ambient dimension and sample size grow proportionally, under a quantitative Marchenko--Pastur spectral-regularity condition on the design. This condition is satisfied by normalized i.i.d. designs with standardized entries of finite fourth moment, but does not req...

Jing-Bo Liu, Zhi-Yuan Yu · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Resolution limits for process comparison from event data

One hospital runs bloods and imaging at the same time. Another runs them one after the other, in either order, equally often. Knowing which actually happened, and how it is recorded in data, is critical for all operational managers. In process mining, the standard approach is to construct an event log, and attempt to d...

Antony R. Lee, Peter Ti\v{n}o, Iain B. Styles · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Online Supervised Dimension Reduction with Random Features: Diagnostics and Computational Trade-offs

Diagnostics limit explanations based solely on terminal optimization accuracy and distinguish numerical cost from quality, rank coverage and freshness; they establish neither practical-tracker convergence nor predictive or deployment benefits from basis availability.

Zhen-Lin Yao, Wei Xiong · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Model-based Bootstrap for Offline Policy Evaluation in Tabular Reinforcement Learning

This paper proposes a model-based bootstrap framework for uncertainty quantification of OPE in finite-horizon, time-inhomogeneous Markov decision processes (MDPs), and establishes bootstrap distributional consistency, asymptotically valid confidence intervals, and consistent variance estimation for the target policy va...

Wei-Wei Wang, Yu-Qiang Li, Xian-Yi Wu et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Near-Optimal Pure Single-Loop Extragradient Method for Strongly Convex--Strongly Concave Minimax Optimization

We study smooth strongly convex--strongly concave minimax optimization with general nonlinear coupling in the deterministic unconstrained setting. We propose a pure single-loop damped extragradient method with fixed parameters and two new full-gradient evaluations per iteration after one initialization query. The metho...

Min-hao Zhang, Zi Xu · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Counterexamples and Sufficient Conditions: Comments on"Optimally-Transported Generalized Method of Moments"

We comment on the optimally-transported generalized method of moments (OTGMM) estimator proposed by Schennach&Starck (2026a) and give counterexamples to Theorems 2-6 under their stated assumptions. First, the assumptions used in the small-error analysis are insufficient for consistency in Theorem 2 and asymptotic norma...

Masahiro Kato · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Next-token functional estimation

A leave-a-window-out estimator is proposed, which deletes a window of length $\tau$ after each index before forming the empirical measure and reduces to leave-one-out at $\tau = 1$.

Milind Nakul, Vidya K. Muthukumar, A. Pananjady · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Null importance: Disentangling relevance for interpretable machine learning

A unified perspective based on null importance is developed: a population-level characterization of when a feature is irrelevant under a specified notion of relevance, which provides a common statistical language for relating scientific questions, data-generating assumptions, and algorithms, and clarify the conclusions...

Garvesh Raskutti, Kris Sankaran, Jia-Xin Ye · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Stable Policy Learning

This paper proposes a method for policy learning called policy-vote bagging, which learns treatment decisions on many subsamples then averages their votes into treatment probabilities, which preserves expected welfare and improves expected utility for a risk-averse researcher.

Harvey Barnhard, Giacomo Opocher, Rahul Singh · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Federated Soft Clustering via Generalized Total Variation Minimization

We study federated soft clustering over federated learning (FL) networks of devices that each hold a private local dataset and fit a personalized Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Generalized total variation minimization (GTVMin) couples the local maximum likelihood problems through a graph regularizer that penalizes a dis...

Shamsiiat Abdurakhmanova, Alexander Jung · 0 citations

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Microsoft Research Blog Oct 6, 2026

What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us

Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity.  The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.

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