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2,619 papers
JTS-SCB forms a bounded sensitivity envelope over candidate tilts, but its calibration-only construction does not inherit the exact finite-sample weighted-conformal guarantee, so experiments show that strong plug-in predictive sampling can match the oracle when the shift is well identified, while sensitivity analysis i...
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture of regression trees with a Dirichlet process prior over tree-parameter pairs, enabling data-driven selection of ensemble size and unifying CART, BART, random forests, and boosting. A novel splitting rule driven by the posterior predictive of a Gaussian process within each ter...
A normal--inverse-gamma (NIG) latent hierarchy has four parameters, but its induced latent law does not identify all four. For $\sigma^2\sim\mathrm{InvGamma}(\alpha,\beta)$, $\mu\mid\sigma^2\sim\mathcal{N}(\gamma,\sigma^2/\nu)$, and $z\mid\mu,\sigma^2\sim\mathcal{N}(\mu,\sigma^2)$, the marginal law of $z$ depends on $(...
In safe hypothesis testing with test supermartingals, Ville's inequality provides anytime-valid type-I error guarantees for every significance level $\alpha\in(0,1]$, if one rejects the null hypothesis whenever the wealth process first exceeds $\frac{1}{\alpha}$. Due to an inherent asymmetry, the type-II error does not...
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In safe hypothesis testing with test supermartingales, Ville's inequality provides anytime-valid type-I error guarantees for every significance level $\alpha\in(0,1]$, if one rejects the null hypothesis whenever the wealth process first exceeds $1/\alpha$. Due to an inherent asymmetry, the type-II error behaves differe...
FedIncome is introduced, a federated learning framework for income estimation that enables institutions to train a shared model without pooling raw borrower records and improves out-of-time performance across all sample-size groups, with the largest gains for data-scarce clients.
This work studies robust score estimation under Wasserstein perturbations of a reference distribution of Ornstein--Uhlenbeck diffusion and characterize how finite data, intrinsic dimension, and distribution shift affect the robustness of score-based diffusion models.
We study multitask regression when coefficient sharing can differ by predictor. For a given predictor, many tasks may have the same coefficient while a few differ, and the exceptional tasks need not be the same for another predictor. We describe this structure by two quantities: the number of active predictors and the...
This work revisits a fundamental question in active learning: how powerful is the ability to synthesize arbitrary queries? Compared to pool-based active learning, where the learner only selects queries from a given unlabeled pool, we find that this seemingly mild change in query ability may dramatically alter the diffi...
An algorithm is given, requiring no knowledge of the horizon, whose cumulative regret satisfies R_t, whose cumulative regret satisfies 1 + O(\sqrt{\ln \ln n / \ln n})\bigr)\sqrt{t \ln n / 2}$ simultaneously for every $t \ge 1$.
Estimating the causal effects of medical treatments is difficult when clinically important outcomes are costly to measure or require long follow-up. Short-term or inexpensive surrogate outcomes offer a potential alternative, but surrogate biomarkers may be unavailable or difficult to identify. Advances in artificial in...
With recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) and LLM-based agents, these agents are becoming increasingly autonomous and gaining broader access to act on users'behalf on the internet. However, the vulnerability of automated agents deployed on social media platforms (e.g., for managing a user's personal acco...
MIT Statistics and Data Science Center Director Alexander (Sasha) Rakhlin shares important considerations for departments and institutions.
By rethinking how large cloud computing systems operate, Associate Professor Christina Delimitrou seeks to make data centers more energy efficient.
As director, Bourg has focused on digital access, open and equitable scholarly publishing, and expanded support for data-intensive research.
Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity. The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.
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