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2,380 papers
Probing the hypothesis space after seeing the data remains valid under possibilistic inferential models (IMs), provided the significance level stays fixed. The price is computation, as each plausibility is a supremum of the possibility contour over the hypothesis, and the contour itself is approximated at each queried...
Bayesian neural networks need not be fully stochastic to be universal conditional density approximators, but it remains open which parameters should be stochastic. We learn this split by applying deep weight factorization to the prior scales, which are the standard deviations of the parameter priors, while fitting the...
Kernel methods are among the most powerful tools in machine learning and statistics, with a large number of successful applications. Their immense success stems from the flexible function class associated to each kernel---its reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS)---which facilitates statistical analysis, as well as f...
Structured recovery phenomena, such as restricted isometry properties in compressed sensing, have shown that high-dimensional objects can often be reconstructed from remarkably low-dimensional linear measurements. This work develops an analogous recovery framework for low-rank signed measures on $\mathbb{R}^2$, defined...
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Conditional density estimation targets the full distribution of a response given covariates, as required, for example, for per-galaxy photometric redshifts. We develop a scalable Bayesian estimator based on the logistic Gaussian process. The log conditional density has a separable covariance: a Mat\'ern kernel along th...
Signals that predict whether a chain-of-thought (CoT) trace is correct are compared by AUC, but deploying one requires a threshold with a guarantee. We ask what distribution-free selective guarantees deliver for CoT verifiers at realistic calibration budgets of tens to a few hundred labelled problems, using seven open...
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a fundamental method for multiview shared space learning. However, its strict reliance on paired data poses a significant limitation, as such data is often difficult to obtain or entirely unavailable. In this paper, we present Unpaired CCA (UCCA), a novel method that learns linea...
First order Langevin algorithms for constrained sampling in machine learning, such as projected Langevin Monte Carlo which are based on discretizations of reflected Langevin dynamics, require differentiable log densities that limits their applicability. This paper introduces reflected anchored Langevin dynamics (RALD),...
We develop a bias-aware digital-twin calibration and control framework for multiscale bioprocess models within a biological systems-of-systems (Bio-SoS) paradigm. The digital twin is represented by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model and calibrated from sparse, discrete observations using quasi-likelihood es...
In wide Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian mean-field variational inference is prone to "prior dominance": the Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization term of the ELBO outweighs the expected log-likelihood, and the variational predictive distribution collapses to the prior predictive as the width $M$ grows. Tempering the...
Multivariate ordinal data along with covariates are commonly collected in problems ranging from alignment of language models with human preferences, as well as in recommender systems. For example, data sets such as MovieLens contain several movies rated on a scale 1--5 by human users, along with their demographic infor...
We study the problem of learning transition kernels for time-homogeneous jump-diffusion processes using conditional diffusion models, with the goal of generating new sample paths from training data consisting of N independent trajectories observed on a high-frequency discrete time grid. On the theoretical side, we esta...
MIT Statistics and Data Science Center Director Alexander (Sasha) Rakhlin shares important considerations for departments and institutions.
By rethinking how large cloud computing systems operate, Associate Professor Christina Delimitrou seeks to make data centers more energy efficient.
As director, Bourg has focused on digital access, open and equitable scholarly publishing, and expanded support for data-intensive research.
Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity. The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.
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