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#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Statistical Benefits of Fine-Tuning from Pretrained Initialization in Diagonal Linear Networks

Adapting pretrained models to downstream tasks with limited data has become a central paradigm in modern deep learning. Yet, despite its widespread practical success, how fine-tuning leverages information from pretraining remains poorly understood theoretically. We study fine-tuning from pretrained weights through the...

A.-E. Decleves, Etienne Boursier, Nicolas Flammarion · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Information-Theoretic Analysis of Next-Token Prediction under Markovian Data

An information-theoretic framework for generalization in next-token prediction under temporally dependent data is developed, revealing the roles of context length, model complexity, sample size, margin, and temporal mixing and yielding informative guarantees for deterministic algorithms over continuous hypothesis space...

Masoud Kavian, Abdellatif Zaidi, Milad Sefidgaran · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Probabilistic Geodesic Flow Matching on Location-Scale Families

Flow matching (FM) has recently emerged as a promising framework for generative modeling due to its conceptual simplicity and strong empirical performance. In FM, samples are transported along a vector field parameterized by a neural network, inducing a probability path that evolves from a simple noise distribution to...

Ze-Yuan Yu, Zhi Chang, Shi-Wei Lan · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Unbiased Top-$k$ Estimation for On-Policy Distillation

Tail-Corrected Top-$k$ On-Policy Distillation (TT-OPD) is proposed, which preserves the advantages of TK-OPD, including rich distributional supervision and low computational cost, while providing an unbiased estimator of the gradient of the reverse KL divergence.

Lin-Jian Meng, Si-Yuan Gan, Yu-Hang Li et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Functional Autoencoders for Amplitude-Phase Representation Learning

An unsupervised framework for functional data that spans both univariate and multivariate cases, with emphasis on the multivariate setting, and factorizes the latent space into separate amplitude and phase embeddings derived from all channels is proposed.

Pei-Da Wu, X. Xiong, Peng-Cheng Zeng · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

GT-PSSM: Unified Probabilistic Framework for Stochastic Dynamics Modeling and Dependency Learning in Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

Multivariate time series anomaly detection (MTAD) is crucial for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of complex systems. Many existing methods learn normal patterns by training reconstruction or forecasting models on predominantly normal data. However, a large portion of these approaches rely on deterministic mode...

W. Koo, Jaeyeong Lee, Taeseong Yoon et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

The Statistical Cost of Causal Discovery with Feedback

What determines the unavoidable sample cost of learning cyclic causal structure? For cyclic linear non-Gaussian models, we study exact condensation recovery from observational data: identifying the strongly connected component (SCC) partition and all edges between components. We establish the first information-theoreti...

Sunmin Oh, Seung-Su Han, Gunwoong Park · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Singularities of Non-negative Matrix Factorization and their application to Bayesian inference

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a singular statistical model whose Bayesian asymptotics are governed by the real log canonical threshold (RLCT). We study the local geometry of the factorization map and derive an upper bound for the RLCT of NMF. Let $H$ be the model inner dimension and $H_0$ the non-negative...

Naoki Hayashi, Yota Maeda, Yasushi Esaki · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Two-Sample Testing for Inhomogeneous Random Graphs in Non-Integral $L_r$ Norms

Testing whether two populations of networks share the same edge probabilities is a basic problem in network inference. How hard it is depends on the norm used to measure the difference. For the inhomogeneous Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi (IER) model, the optimal sample complexity is known for every integer $L_r$ norm and for $1\l...

Soham Dan · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Multi-Marginal Inverse Optimal Transport for Contrastive Learning Via Explicit Anchor-Positive-Negative Coupling

Inverse Optimal Transport (OT) based methods for representation learning learn representations such that the global OT coupling between a pair of data marginals in the representation space, concentrates on the positive pairs. This is in contrast to previous methods that primarily focused on pairwise matching. However,...

Ngoc-Hai Nguyen, Thuan Nguyen, Prakash Ishwar et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Weighted Spline-Expanded Networks with Distributional Balancing for Continuous Treatment Effects

Estimating causal effects with continuous treatments in observational studies is challenging due to confounding, model misspecification, and high-dimensional covariates. We propose the Weighted Spline-Expanded Network (WSENet), an end-to-end neural framework that addresses these challenges by combining covariate balanc...

Shu-Cheng Liu, Chan Park, Guan-Hua Chen · 0 citations

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Microsoft Research Blog Oct 6, 2026

What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us

Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity.  The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.

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