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Yuriy A. Reznik

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Preprint Aug 2026

The Optimal Discounting Parameter of the Power Prior under Predictive Log-Loss

The power prior of Ibrahim and Chen incorporates historical data into a Bayesian analysis by raising the historical likelihood to a power $a_0 \in [0, 1]$. The choice of the exponent has remained an open question. This paper gives a closed-form answer under the predictive log-loss. For a model with $d$ parameters, a hi...

Yuriy A. Reznik · 1 citation