Sanika Baste

The need for uncertainty: why probabilistic LSTMs are key to improving flood predictions and enabling learned warning rules

Code and results accompanying the EGUsphere preprint egusphere-2026-469. This repository implements deep-learning rainfall–runoff models over the CAMELS-CH basins, comparing a deterministic LSTM baseline against three probabilistic output heads — a DRN model (called LD-LSTM in the code), a Bernstein Quantile Network (B...