This work introduces WhatIf-Bench, a benchmark measuring how well forecasters use covariates to forecast a target's response to future events, and reveals generalization to Novel futures as the core challenge, and offers a testbed toward arbitrary scenario analysis.
Arjun Ashok, Mihir Parmar, Palash Goyal et al.· 0 citations
This model combines two visual views: line plots preserve absolute measurements and the observed coordinate frame, while normalized delay embeddings factor out positive amplitude rescaling and offsets while exposing temporal structure.
Hedi Zisling, Liran Nochumsohn, Ilan Naiman et al.· 0 citations
Real-world time series are frequently driven by exogenous events and structural shifts, rendering conventional forecasting based solely on historical numerical observations insufficient. While language models can retrieve external news, standard retrieval-augmented approaches struggle with high noise, missing signals,...
Ming-Tian Tan, Palash Goyal, Mihir Parmar et al.· 0 citations
It is shown that explicit idea-level allocation makes semantic coverage directly controllable, and that broader coverage becomes increasingly valuable when competitive research directions are sparse among many plausible alternatives.
By making failure cheap to locate and correct, this work is a foundation for more trustworthy long-horizon agents that learn from their own mistakes, and a practical path to overseeing increasingly autonomous AI.
Salman Rahman, Y. Kim, Mihir Parmar et al.· 2 citations
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