Emission reductions required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement have been extensively analyzed using integrated assessment modeling scenarios. However, the contribution of urban areas in aggregate, globally, by region and by city type, remains underexplored. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework to downscale global emissions pathways to urban areas, differentiated by region and city type. Ambitious climate change mitigation could deliver 21 GtCO₂e of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions in urban areas by 2050 relative to a continuation of current policies and trends, primarily by transitioning away from fossil fuels in electricity and heat supply, deep decarbonization of industry, and mitigation in the transport and buildings sectors. Mitigation potential is concentrated in established and rapidly growing cities, reflecting their high current per-capita emission levels. Asian regions with high urbanization levels dominate global urban emissions and reduction potentials. The findings underscore the central role of cities in achieving global climate targets and highlight the importance of differentiated mitigation strategies across regions and city types.
Gunnar Luderer, Pascal Weigmann, Mark Roelfsema et al.· Environmental Research Lette...· 0 citations
The European Union has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, but whether current trends are compatible with this ambition remains uncertain. We apply deep learning to high-resolution socioeconomic and sectoral data across EU27 member states till 2023 to project sectoral CO$_2$ trajectories under current trends, extrapolating observed sectoral momentum without assuming changes in the pace or effectiveness of the policy environment beyond what is already reflected in historical data. We project that EU27 emissions will exceed the 2030 target by 35% (620 Mt CO$_2$ shortfall), with only a small minority of countries on trajectories consistent with the bloc's commitments. While the Power sector achieves target-consistent reductions driven by the renewable transition, Mobility shows minimal progress and accounts for over a third of total emissions by 2030, reflecting a structural inertia across member states rather than geographically concentrated lag. Our findings indicate that substantial additional intervention is required to close Europe's ambition-implementation gap, and call for establishing up-to-date energy information in Europe.
Jacopo Ghirri, Carlos Rodriguez-Pardo, Lara Aleluia Reis et al.· 0 citations
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