Author

Jannik M. Westermann

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Preprint Aug 2026

Sharp Tail Bounds Beyond Twice the Mean

Consider $n$ independent, non-negative, mean at most one random variables, $X_1,X_2,\ldots$. We show the following bound on the probability of their sum exceeding a threshold $t$: \[ \mathbb{P}\left[\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\ge t\right] \leq 1-\left(1-\frac{1}{t}\right)^n \text{ for all } t\ge 2n+1 \,. \] To prove this, we cons...

P. Strack, Jannik M. Westermann · 1 citation