Author

Danilo Alvares

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Preprint Sep 2026

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal patient-reported outcomes and survival: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Questionnaire-based patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are discrete, bounded and overdispersed, yet joint models relating them to survival may ignore these features or estimate both processes sequentially. We propose a Bayesian joint model combining a beta-binomial mixed-effects submodel with a Weibull proportional hazar...

Cristina Galán-Arcicollar, Danilo Alvares, J. Najera-Zuloaga et al. · 0 citations

#machine learning Jul 2026

The C-index illusion: discrimination without calibration in published survival models

Three published survival-ML models across three structurally distinct domains are reproduced and a direct test of whether metric choice inverts model preference does not reject, though with limited power given two to three models per domain; the failure mode is better characterized as misplaced confidence in a chosen m...

Rafael da Silva, Danilo Alvares · arXiv.org · 0 citations