Conditional Value-at-Risk Optimization in Stochastic Unit Commitment for Energy Aggregator Scheduling

Abstract

This paper studies a risk-averse stochastic unit commitment framework for an energy aggregator, operating a portfolio of conventional generators, renewable units, and battery energy storage in a network-constrained environment. Renewable generation and demand uncertainty are represented through a scenario-based extensive-form mixed-integer linear program. To avoid exposure to rare but high cost events, the model incorporates conditional value-at-risk as part of the objective function. The approach captures key market interactions, including day-ahead commitments, imbalance penalties, and power exchange with a neighboring network, while respecting generator constraints, storage dynamics, line flow limits, and bus voltage security. A comprehensive parametric study is conducted to quantify the influence of two risk parameters: the conditional value-at-risk confidence level α and the risk-aversion weight λ. Using a 300-scenario test set on a modified IEEE 9-bus system, the results show that risk-neutral scheduling exposes the aggregator to larger operational costs in extreme scenarios. Minor levels of risk aversion (0.1–0.5) reduce CVaR and tighten the distribution of costs. Increasing λ further yields diminishing returns, while higher α values focus risk mitigation on the most severe outcomes. The results demonstrate how CVaR-based stochastic scheduling can support aggregator decision-making by quantifying downside risk under renewable uncertainty.