Machine-Learning-Assisted Multi-Energy Coupling and Battery–Grid Coordination for Deep Decarbonization of Smart Integrated Energy Systems: Modeling, Optimization, and Applications
Abstract
In grid-connected smart integrated energy systems with high shares of renewable generation, source-side variability and inadequate coordination among battery storage, other energy carriers, and the external grid limit local renewable-electricity utilization and impede deep decarbonization. This study proposes a machine-learning-assisted, renewable-driven framework for multi-energy coupling and scenario-based multi-objective optimization of electricity–heat–hydrogen–storage systems. Historical meteorological and load data are processed using K-means clustering and Latin hypercube sampling to construct representative operating scenarios across multiple volatility regimes and characterize source–load uncertainty. The equipment model includes photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, heat pumps, electrolyzers, fuel cells, grid-interactive battery energy storage, thermal storage, and hydrogen storage; cross-carrier conversion dynamics and emissions from purchased electricity and natural gas are embedded in the energy-balance constraints. A mixed-integer linear programming formulation then co-optimizes battery charging and discharging, grid exchange, and other multi-energy flows with respect to operating cost, carbon emissions, and renewable-energy curtailment. At 95% renewable-energy penetration, the proposed method achieves a renewable-energy absorption rate of 91.6% and a curtailment rate of 8.4%. Across the carbon-price cases, annualized operating cost ranges from 126.5 × 104 to 141.2 × 104 USD yr−1, while carbon-emission intensity ranges from 26.4 to 38.5 gCO2/kWheq. Under the specified high-risk grid disturbances, the coordinated strategy limits load shedding to 1.8%—73% below deterministic scheduling and 79% below the heuristic benchmark—and maintains 92.6% hydrogen self-sufficiency. These results provide a data-driven modeling and decision framework for battery–grid coordination and deep decarbonization in smart integrated energy systems.