An End-to-End Machine Learning Framework for Groundwater Level Characterization and Climate-Constrained Probabilistic Forecasting in a Complex Karst Aquifer

Abstract

Human activities such as intensive groundwater abstraction and mine dewatering can profoundly disrupt the natural hydrological functioning of karst aquifers. The Transdanubian karst aquifer in Hungary represents one of Central Europe’s most prominent examples, where decades of coal-mine dewatering lowered groundwater levels by more than 40 m and fundamentally altered the natural recharge–discharge regime. Understanding and forecasting recovery in such complex karst systems remain challenging because of heterogeneous conduit–fracture networks, strong climate sensitivity, incomplete monitoring records, and uncertainty in long-term predictions. This study presents an integrated end-to-end machine learning framework for groundwater characterization and climate-constrained probabilistic forecasting. Monthly groundwater-level records (1970–2026) from five monitoring wells were first reconstructed using a hybrid Moving Average–Random Forest gap-filling approach, achieving high reconstruction accuracy (R2 = 0.87–0.98). Self-Organizing Maps subsequently identified four hydrogeological states representing the dewatering, transition, recovery, and near-equilibrium phases, while inter-well weight-plane correlations (>0.95) confirmed strong basin-scale hydraulic connectivity. A Bootstrapped Random Forest model forced by bias-corrected COSMO-CLM precipitation projections under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario generated probabilistic groundwater forecasts through 2030, achieving high predictive performance (NSE > 0.80; RMSE = 0.10–0.35 m). Forecast results indicate that the basin as a whole is approaching hydraulic equilibrium by 2030, with distinct well-specific trajectories including mild steady decline and near-stable water level. The proposed framework provides a robust and transferable methodology for groundwater characterization and long-term forecasting in complex karst and fractured aquifer systems under changing climatic conditions.