The widening evaluation gap in medical large language model research 2023 to 2026

Abstract

Large language models are superseded every few quarters; clinical evidence takes years. We asked whether medical research is keeping pace with the systems it evaluates. PubMed returned 11,628 records for January 2023 to June 2026 across fourteen clinical domains, growing 45-fold; 2.5% used a randomised, controlled or prospective design. Evaluation lag, from a study's newest named model release to its own publication, widened from 1.33 to 6.08 quarters. Because discontinued models age mechanically, we benchmarked this against a counterfactual holding model composition fixed: migration to newer systems offset only 56% of the drift (95% CI 50-65). Randomised trials evaluated models a median 4.6 quarters older than other designs (P = 3 x 10^-19), yet among studies naming a model still under development no design differed from any other; 62% of randomised trials evaluated a discontinued family. Rigour and currency are in tension, and that tension reflects model selection rather than research timelines.