Estimation of COVID-19 Epidemic in India: Stochastic Models of Emerging Infectious Disease Transmission on SIR Models

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a based on the presence of a mathematical sequential reduction of three compartmental (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model to the logistic (Verhulst) equation with parameter estimated by the basic characteristic of the epidemic process, this model is being tested in the application of the data on the outbreak of COVID-19 reported by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We show that such a simple model sufficiently reproduces the epidemic dynamics not only qualitatively, but India qualitatively with a high degree of correlation that allows to use it for forecast estimations. In additional exponential and poisson model using to regression parameters are estimated. Finally, some aspects of the SIR model are discussed in context, and how its conditions and parameters ns reflect efforts to prevention disease development are clearly indicated by deviations from such model solutions.