Aug 2026· Boletim da Sociedade Paranaense de Matemática· Vol 44, pp. 1-12· 0 citations· 7 references
TL;DR
It is shown that such a simple model sufficiently reproduces the epidemic dynamics not only qualitatively, but also qualitatively with a high degree of correlation that allows to use it for forecast estimations.
Abstract
In this paper, we consider a based on the presence of a mathematical sequential reduction of three compartmental (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model to the logistic (Verhulst) equation with parameter estimated by the basic characteristic of the epidemic process, this model is being tested in the application of the data on the outbreak of COVID-19 reported by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We show that such a simple model sufficiently reproduces the epidemic dynamics not only qualitatively, but India qualitatively with a high degree of correlation that allows to use it for forecast estimations. In additional exponential and poisson model using to regression parameters are estimated. Finally, some aspects of the SIR model are discussed in context, and how its conditions and parameters ns reflect efforts to prevention disease development are clearly indicated by deviations from such model solutions.
The Pandemic, COVID-19, has left a great impact on every aspect of life around the globe. It paved the way for crises in all major sectors including health and economics. Therefore, that raise the necessity of an appropriate mathematical models to foresee the intensity and spread of COVID-19 variant. The study puts for...
M. Yousaf, Quratulain Malik, Sana Javed et al.· Punjab University journal of...· 0 citations
This study develops a methodology to estimate heterogeneities in COVID-19 transmission from under-reported incidence data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and indicates that the model with heterogeneity was better supported than a homogenous model.
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A deterministic SEIR model in which susceptible people are vaccinated at a constant rate, infectious people are treated at a constant per-capita rate, and the force of infection saturates at high prevalence to reflect behavioural change and limited contact is studied.
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