Arnold's Bifurcation Principle Applied to Optical Network Soft-Failure Early Warning

Abstract

Optical transport networks– the fiber links carrying telecom and data-center traffic– can develop “soft failures”: a slowly aging amplifier, a worn connector, or a degrading splice that gradually weakens the signal long before it fails outright. Today’s protection mechanism only reacts once the signal quality has already dropped far enough, several times in a row, to cross a fixed threshold. This paper applies Arnold’s Bifurcation Principle– the same fixed, training free method already used in our earlier work on hemodialysis vascular access, drone wind-gust safety, cardiac arrhythmia warning, and 5G/6G radio-link failure– to the optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR) measurement a fiber-optic network already monitors. On a single synthetic run, the method gives a meaningful early warning before the existing reactive protection-switchingmechanism itself would fire, using a small, dedicated hardware controller rather than software. All results here are from simulated data; the next step is testing on real network logs