Unveiling Multi-Hazard Hotspots in Kabul: An Integrated Geospatial Assessment in a Data-Scarce Urban Environment

Abstract

Multi-hazard assessment plays a crucial role in understanding the spatial concurrence and cumulative effects of various environmental hazards. However, limited availability of integrated hazard information and the lack of spatially explicit multi-hazard assessments constrain urban risk governance and landscape-scale nature-based solution planning. This study addresses this gap by enhancing scientific understanding of the spatial distribution of multiple environmental hazards in Kabul region, where data limitations and informal growth hinder effective risk management. The study pursues two objectives: (1) to assess and map the spatial distribution of individual environmental hazards, and (2) to identify multi-hazard zones and their specific hazard combinations. This study assesses five key hazards—flood (FH), heat (HH), drought (DH), soil erosion (SEH), and groundwater stress (GWS)—using Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis within a GIS framework. The study rates and weights nine parameters through hazard-specific methods. It then integrates the binary hazard layers using two approaches: (1) raster calculator to quantify the spatial overlap of hazard-prone areas, and (2) weighted multiplication of binary layers to interpret unique hazard combinations. The results show that approximately 80% of Kabul experiences at least three hazards. Single-hazard zones account for 1.8% of the study area, while two-, three-, four-, and five-hazard zones represent 18.6%, 44.3%, 32.9%, and 2.8%, respectively. FH emerged as the most spatially extensive individual hazard (8.5%), with frequent combinations including FH–GWS (8.47%), GWS–HH (17.79%), SEH–HH (8.54%), SEH–GWS–HH (18.81%), and DH–GWS–HH (8.16%). The findings enhance understanding of hazard combination and enable more targeted mitigation planning. Develops an integrative geospatial framework to map multiple environmental hazards in a data-scarce urban environment in the Global South. More than 80% of the study area is exposed to three or more concurrent hazards. Provides a hazard baseline to support urban risk governance and landscape-scale Nature-based Solutions (NBS) planning. Develops an integrative geospatial framework to map multiple environmental hazards in a data-scarce urban environment in the Global South. More than 80% of the study area is exposed to three or more concurrent hazards. Provides a hazard baseline to support urban risk governance and landscape-scale Nature-based Solutions (NBS) planning.