Exo-Earth Candidate Population Projection Pipeline
Abstract
Reproducible astrophysical analysis, validation, and archival pipeline for reconstructing and propagating Kepler DR25 exoplanet-occurrence posteriors, including corrected asymmetric measurement-error propagation and a legacy source-faithful mode, catalog-reliability resampling, adaptive ensemble MCMC with convergence, autocorrelation-time, ESS and MCSE diagnostics, JJ/PARSEC/TAMS thin- and thick-disk host-star population synthesis and main-sequence selection, Kopparapu habitable-zone modelling and climate clipping, Galactic radial integration and narrow-domain exo-Earth candidate population projections, direct DR25 local empirical-support analysis, host-selector, TAMS, radial-grid, occurrence-model, climate, habitable-zone and spatial sensitivity tests, frozen posterior and derived population outputs, scientific figure-generation scripts, cryptographically locked external-data and source dependencies, SHA-256 manifests, provenance and migration records, mixed-license documentation, unit and regression tests, CI workflows, verification utilities, and reproducible public-release tooling. Version 4.0.4 publishes the verified software and frozen public evidence for the corrected Kepler DR25 occurrence-posterior and Galactic population projection pipeline. It includes corrected asymmetric measurement-error propagation, the source-faithful legacy comparison, adaptive MCMC diagnostics, qualified JJ/PARSEC/TAMS host-population evidence, radial and age-cut sensitivity checks, and deterministic public-release verification. The reported numbers are conditional population-model projections. They are not a count of confirmed Earth analogues, evidence of inhabited planets, or an unconditional estimate of the actual Galactic planet population. The exact narrow DR25 target cell contains no direct catalogue candidates; its role is a local empirical-support diagnostic for the modelled extrapolation. The release contains exactly four public assets: a deterministic source archive and its SHA-256 manifest, plus a disclosure-filtered deterministic results archive and its SHA-256 file. Raw inputs, MCMC chains, row-level DR25 and host tables, SSPs, signing keys, and execution logs are intentionally excluded. Creator ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5003-5354GitHub release: https://github.com/jerseroman/Exo-Earth-Candidate-Population-Projection-Pipeline/releases/tag/v4.0.4Source ZIP SHA-256: 3862796c3ee24931bfec5acfb6659b0c846838d67a8fe93d68a13bbcaafdf312Results ZIP SHA-256: a24e1795ec6d9a13429024d81073d3d02025b19b3935171db9637cbbe2073b45
