A Just Transition: A Framework for Leveraging Fossil Resources to Achieve Nigeria's Net-Zero Target by 2060

Abstract

Being the most populous country in Africa and the leading oil producer in the continent, Nigeria is at a vital crossroads. The nation has the pressing need to reduce energy poverty, which still plagues over 85 million of its citizens (IEA, 2023), and at the same time meet its goal of realizing the global mandate of the net-zero by 2060. This essay goes further to propose a broad-based energy transition model that is specifically geared towards coping with this twofold challenge. The main aim of this study is to find the reconciliation between deep carbonization and the fact that the country heavily depends on fossil fuel resources as the present source of its foreign exchange, and it contributes over 80% of the revenues of the country (NESG, 2022). The suggested methodology is organized in the form of three pillars of strategic approach. These are, Transitional Gas Strategy that unites Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and powerful methane abatement; Fiscal Liquidity due to the sustained Oil Production; and an expedited Renewable Energy Deployment program based on the deployment of decentralized solar photovoltaic systems and battery storage infrastructure. The model aims to create the fiscal space required to finance widespread grid modernization, access to electricity by all by 2030, a 50 percent reduction in the intensity of emissions by 2060, and long-term macroeconomic stability by targeting a sustained level of oil production (2.1-2.7 million barrels per day). That would provide a potential blueprint to other resource-dependent economies facing similar transitions.