A Multi-criteria Model for Structural Gap Assessment in the Forecast Fuel and Energy Balance: A Systemic Management Approach

Abstract

The article examines the fuel and energy balance (FEB) as a tool for systemic management of all economic subsystems that influence the formation of the energy balance structure. The goal of the study is to develop a conceptual model for generating a forecast FEB, ensuring full alignment of fuel and energy sectors with macroeconomic targets by selecting the most effective management decisions at the national, regional, and district levels. A distinctive feature is the rationale for a multi-criteria assessment of the impact of management decisions in the fuel and energy sector and related sectors on the structural parameters of the forecast FEB. This will enable a quantitative analysis of the impact of alternative management decisions (program measures) on the key elements of the forecast FEB. This article presents a mathematical model for calculating the integral value of a structural gap in individual FEB subsystems caused by a specific decision option or set of program measures. It also presents a developed mathematical model for calculating the integral indicator of structural changes in FEB subsystems caused by the implementation of specific management decisions or development programs.