Machine Learning Algorithms for Credit Card Fraud Detection: Cost-Sensitive Evaluation and Model Selection

Abstract

Abstract The rise in online transactions has made credit card fraud a significant global concern, necessitating detection strategies that are both highly accurate and practically viable. While existing literature extensively explores machine learning techniques to address class imbalance, most studies optimize for traditional statistical metrics, overlooking the asymmetric financial costs and strict operational constraints of real-world fraud detection. This study bridges this gap by proposing a comprehensive, cost-sensitive ensemble framework evaluated on a real-world European cardholder dataset. We move beyond the traditional F 1 score by adopting the cost-sensitive F β metric to reflect real financial impact. Through exhaustive benchmarking, we show that while eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) combined with Borderline SMOTE achieves the highest single-model performance, our proposed soft-voting ensemble integrating Logistic Regression and Random Forest with SMOTE delivers the best overall performance (F β = 0.8287). To ensure practical viability, we introduce a Top-K operational constraint evaluation reflecting limited human investigation bandwidths. Additionally, an ablation study demonstrates that there is no universal remedy for class imbalance; optimal interventions are highly model-dependent. Finally, by validating our framework on a feature-transparent simulated dataset, model interpretability analysis reveals the ensemble’s capacity to capture the critical importance of environmental risk factors, shifting the focus beyond solely customer-centric anomalies.