Fintech survival drivers in digital market ecosystems: a fuzzy Delphi study under an institutional-evolutionary perspective

Abstract

Fintech has become a critical infrastructure for electronic commerce, enabling digital payments, platform transactions, online financial services, and trust-based exchanges. However, innovation and rapid adoption do not necessarily ensure long-term survival. Fintech viability also depends on regulatory legitimacy, organisational capabilities, ecosystem compatibility, and growing demands for trust, resilience, sustainability, and responsible data use. This study therefore shifts attention from fintech adoption to Fintech Survival Drivers (FSD) and asks which drivers experts identify as determinants of fintech survival. Using a multi-round Fuzzy Delphi study, we identify the conditions that enable fintech innovations to become scalable, reliable, and sustainable business models. A heterogeneous panel of 21 European experts from nine fintech ecosystem domains and 13 countries completed the study between 2023 and 2025. The results directly answer the research question by organising the identified FSD into three evolutionary states: a retained core, a context-dependent selection zone, and a contested frontier. The novelty of the research lies in integrating evolutionary selection mechanisms, institutional conditions, and the requirements of human-centric electronic commerce. The three states support this integrated framework: institutional forces explain which drivers acquire legitimacy and viability, while evolutionary dynamics explain how particular configurations are selected, retained, or contested. The study thus shows how FSD combine to support organisational survival and the continuity of digital transactions.