Determinants of livelihood diversification among climate-vulnerable rice farming households: an integrated multi-theoretical approach from central Vietnam

Abstract

This study identifies the determinants of livelihood diversification among rice farming households in climate-vulnerable areas of Central Vietnam by applying an integrated perspective drawn from the Sustainable Livelihood Framework, Portfolio Theory, Risk Management Theory, and Household Decision-Making Theory. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 278 households randomly selected from a population of 5,194 rice farming households in Thua Thien Hue province. A binary logistic regression model examined how diversification participation is associated with livelihood capital endowments (human, natural, physical, financial, and social) as well as socioeconomic and contextual factors, including vulnerability (climate-change perception and idiosyncratic risks), transformation processes (transportation and urbanisation), and policy/institutional factors (extension services, government support, and credit access). Diversification is associated with substantial welfare differentials, with income increasing by 54% for simple strategies and up to 371.5% for comprehensive multi-activity approaches. Diversification is more likely among households with higher education, better transportation access, greater mobility, and stronger exposure to urbanisation opportunities, while larger farm size, debt, and climate-change perception are associated with lower diversification likelihood. Cross-sectional design limits causal inference, though robust theoretical foundation enhances confidence in findings. Geographic scope is limited to Central Vietnam, but careful site selection ensures broader applicability to similar agro-ecological contexts facing climate vulnerability. The study provides context-specific evidence on diversification determinants in climate-vulnerable rice systems in Central Vietnam and demonstrates the value of integrating multiple theoretical lenses to improve the policy interpretability of diversification participation under risk and constraints.