Zambia's Strategic Logic Between Chinese and Western Resource Development Models: An Analysis Based on the "Astute Fisherman" Framework

Abstract

The "resource curse" has long puzzled scholars studying resource-rich nations: abundant natural resources rarely translate into sustained development, yet existing structural or institutional research rarely clarifies why countries with similar resource endowments take drastically different paths. Taking Zambia—Africa’s second-largest copper producer—as the primary case, this study addresses the core question of how such nations can break free from this curse by reinterpreting the "smart fisherman" theoretical framework. By tracking Zambia’s three-stage mining policy adjustments (2005-2010 privatization, 2011-2020 sovereignty awakening, 2021-present systematic advancement) and comparing it with Norway’s institutional advantages and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)’s governance failure, this study identifies three core drivers of transformation for resource-rich countries: investment diversification, rule-based bargaining, and capacity building. It defines national capacity as the core mediating variable, constructing an operational measurement system covering governance indicators, corruption control, and local value chain depth. The research verifies the core proposition that "national capacity is the key converter determining strategic success or failure," deepening discussions on small-state agency in resource curse theory and providing a theoretically rigorous, empirically grounded analytical framework for the transformation of Global South resource-rich nations.