Research on a Permanent Lunar Colony System for 100,000 People Based on a Multi-Objective Collaborative Optimization Model

Abstract

: Against the backdrop of intensifying ecological pressures on Earth and the continued advancement of deep-space exploration strategies, establishing a permanent lunar colony capable of accommodating 100,000 people has become a long-term development goal. To address challenges including high transportation costs, stringent resource constraints, and significant environmental impacts, this study constructs a multi-objective discrete optimization framework centered on a coupled “transportation– resource – environme nt” system to determine optimal transportation and resource-supply strategies. First, based on projections of transportation capacity and unit payload in 2050, a closed-loop water-resource model is developed by integrating hierarchical water recycling, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), electrolytic fuel-production modules, and dynamic safety-stock simulation to estimate net water-transport demand and its associated costs. Next, an environmental model based on life cycle assessment (LCA) is introduced to convert carbon emissions into discounted environmental costs, forming a three-objective optimization model that balances economic cost, construction duration, and environmental impact. Results show that under ideal conditions, annual net water-transport demand ranges from 200,000 to 830,000 tons. When space-elevator transport accounts for 69% of total capacity, the weighted total cost is minimized at USD 919.996 trillion. Inventory simulations confirm year-round water-supply sustainability while significantly reducing carbon emissions.