Can GPT Be Used as an Alternative Prediction Model to Traditional Machine Learning and Neural Networks on Low-Volume Clinical Data?

Abstract

Background and Objective: Early and reliable disease prediction from structured clinical data remains challenging when datasets are small, highly imbalanced, and contain limited positive disease cases. Conventional machine learning (ML) and deep learning approaches often struggle to capture clinically meaningful relationships under such low-data representation conditions due to weak statistical associations between features and prediction targets. This study proposes a clinically grounded GPT2-based table-to-text framework for disease prediction using structured healthcare datasets, motivated by the contextual reasoning capability of GPT models to better capture clinically meaningful relationships when statistical learning alone becomes insufficient due to limited data availability. Methods & Materials: Structured clinical records were transformed into physician-style textual descriptions and enriched through GPT4-generated medical paraphrasing to improve minority-class representation while preserving clinical meaning. Both the original and generated clinical texts were used to fine-tune a GPT2 model across four public healthcare datasets, including heart disease, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and thyroid cancer recurrence. Gradient-based explainable AI analysis was additionally incorporated to identify clinically important features influencing prediction outcomes. Results: The proposed framework demonstrated consistently strong predictive performance with average precision, specificity, sensitivity, and F1-score of 0.96, 0.97, 0.96, and 0.96, respectively. The model achieved improved sensitivity, stronger generalization, and more stable predictive behavior compared with traditional ML, deep learning, transformer-based, and GAN-augmented approaches. Importantly, the framework consistently emphasized clinically meaningful variables even under severe class imbalance where conventional ML and neural network models often struggled. Conclusions: The proposed GPT2-based table-to-text framework provides a practical and clinically interpretable approach for disease prediction from limited structured healthcare data. By integrating contextual clinical reasoning with explainable prediction mechanisms, the framework demonstrates strong potential for early risk detection, transparent clinical decision support, and reliable deployment in real-world low-resource healthcare environments.