Optimizing the Synergy Between Natural Gas Infrastructure and Green Hydrogen: A Roadmap for Nigeria's Energy Transition
Abstract
This paper presents a technical and economic assessment of embedding clean hydrogen into Nigeria's existing natural gas midstream infrastructure. Using the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) as a representative reference case, the study applies steady-state hydraulic modelling and a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework to evaluate three hydrogen-natural gas (H2NG) blending scenarios 5%, 15%, and 25% hydrogen by volume against technical, material integrity, economic, and environmental criteria. All quantitative outputs are derived from published pipeline engineering correlations and publicly available infrastructure parameters, and are presented as representative estimates to illustrate the methodological framework. Modelling results indicate that a 15% hydrogen blend represents the optimal near-term ceiling for ELPS-class infrastructure, delivering manageable hydraulic impacts while remaining within safe operating limits for legacy carbon-steel pipelines. Concentrations exceeding 20% present significant hydrogen embrittlement risk requiring remediation via internal polymer lining. A complementary techno-economic model using the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) metric projects that decentralized solar-powered electrolysis in Nigeria's Niger Delta region could reach cost parity with foreign energy sources by approximately 2030. The analysis estimates that 15% H2NG blending could reduce the industrial sector's carbon intensity by approximately 14% annually relative to a pure natural gas baseline. The paper proposes a four-phase roadmap (2025-2060) anchored to Nigeria's Energy Transition Plan (ETP), arguing that repurposing rather than replacing existing gas infrastructure is the most cost- effective and just transition pathway. A regulatory development agenda is also outlined, as the absence of hydrogen-specific pipeline safety standards remains the most critical non-technical barrier to scaling these systems.