What is Missing from AI Post-Training AI: An Empirical Analysis
TL;DR
Analyzing a large corpus of publicly released post-training trajectories, it is found that across different tasks, the agent's training strategy is locked in at the very beginning, and the entire remaining budget is spent on local adjustments within the selected strategy.
Abstract
Large language model (LLM) agents can now post-train an LLM end-to-end, raising the prospect of recursive self-improvement (RSI). Yet this progress is measured by aggregate benchmark scores, which cannot tell whether an agent executes a fixed plan well or strategically revises the plan when it fails. We separate these two capabilities: execution-level capability, iterating within an established training strategy, and strategy-level capability, revising that strategy as experimental evidence accumulates. Analyzing 1,338 post-training trajectories of frontier agents, we find that agents reliably execute post-training but lock into a default strategy, which follows the agent rather than the task, and only 2.1% of transitions between adjacent training runs ever change strategy. We then test whether the agent lacks experience, reasoning, or the decision to switch. (1) Experience improves execution but not the strategy. (2) Additional reasoning compute yields front-loaded gains on easier tasks but refines, rather than revises, the committed strategy. (3) Human review before training changes which strategy the agent locks into, not whether it locks in, whereas a single mid-run instruction outperforms the agent's own continuation by up to 17.44 points under the same budget. In conclusion, what the agent lacks is the decision to reopen a committed strategy and try another one. Realizing RSI therefore calls for interaction protocols and training signals that make strategy revision an explicit, rewarded decision.
