Machine Learning-Based Compressive Strength Prediction and Multi-Objective Optimization of Ultra-High Performance Concrete

Abstract

The compressive strength of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including material composition, mixture proportion parameters, and curing regime. Conventional empirical methods are therefore insufficient to accurately characterize the highly nonlinear relationships involved. To improve the prediction accuracy of UHPC compressive strength and to achieve mixture proportion optimization that simultaneously considers mechanical performance, economic efficiency, and environmental impact, this study developed random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models based on 810 publicly available UHPC experimental datasets. Model performance was evaluated using R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. To enhance the robustness of model validation, repeated K-fold cross-validation, sensitivity analysis with different random seed splits, and benchmark model comparisons were further introduced. The results indicate that the XGBoost model achieved superior predictive performance on both the test set and robustness validation, with test-set R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values of 0.9604, 7.77, 5.58, and 4.80, respectively. The model was further interpreted using SHAP, PDP, and ICE methods, and the results revealed that curing age, fiber content, silica fume content, and water-to-binder ratio were important variables affecting the compressive strength of UHPC. Furthermore, XGBoost was used as a surrogate model and coupled with NSGA-II and TOPSIS methods for multi-objective optimization. Under the constraints of compressive strength, water-to-binder ratio, superplasticizer-to-binder ratio, and absolute volume, a computationally recommended UHPC mixture proportion balancing strength, cost, and carbon emissions was obtained. This study provides a reproducible machine-learning-assisted approach for UHPC compressive strength prediction and low-carbon, cost-effective mixture proportion design.