Recalibrating Kabul: India’s Geopolitical Policy Shift Towards Taliban 2.0

Abstract

India and Afghanistan share deep civilizational, cultural, and historical ties that have long transcended formal diplomacy. Rooted in ancient linkages through the Silk Road, Vedic-Avestan connections, and shared anti-colonial struggles, the bilateral relationship has evolved significantly across different political regimes in Kabul. This paper examines India’s geopolitical policy shift towards Taliban 2.0 following the abrupt collapse of the Afghan Republic in August 2021. Drawing on Kautilya’s Rajamandala theory, which views the neighbour’s neighbour as a natural ally, the study analyses how geography and strategic imperatives continue to shape India’s approach towards Afghanistan. Despite ideological differences and historical mistrust stemming from the Taliban’s past linkages with Pakistan-sponsored terrorist groups, India has adopted a pragmatic “engage but do not endorse” policy. This recalibration is marked by incremental diplomatic normalisation, including high-level meetings such as the October 2025 visit of Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to New Delhi, the upgrade of India’s mission in Kabul to a full embassy, and renewed economic cooperation. The paper highlights the convergence of mutual interests in counterterrorism, regional connectivity, and reducing over-dependence on Pakistan and China. Key elements include the operationalisation of the Chabahar Port–International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), revival of bilateral trade (which crossed US$ 1 billion in FY 2024–25), and India’s continued development and humanitarian assistance. At the same time, it critically evaluates the challenges, including normative contradictions related to women’s rights and human rights, persistent security threats from anti-India militant groups, great-power competition with China, and Pakistan’s efforts to undermine the rapprochement. Through qualitative analysis of policy documents, official statements, and secondary literature, this study argues that India’s post-2021 Afghanistan policy reflects a classic geopolitical recalibration rooted in Kautilyan realism—prioritising strategic interests, connectivity, and influence over ideological alignment. The long-term sustainability of this engagement will depend on balancing security concerns with India’s democratic values in an uncertain regional environment.