COUNTERTERRORISM AND SOVEREIGNTY IN THE SECURITY DILEMMA BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN AFTER 2021

Abstract

This paper examines the interaction between counterterrorism demands, sovereignty concerns and reciprocal escalation in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations after 2021. Drawing on security dilemma theory, United Nations reporting and official diplomatic statements, it analyses evidence available through 14 October 2026. The central argument is that a documented militant threat and weakly verifiable commitments reinforce a cycle of insecurity. Pakistan seeks action against armed groups operating from Afghan territory, while Afghanistan’s de facto authorities frame cross-border military pressure as a threat to sovereignty and political autonomy. The analysis distinguishes the Afghan Taliban from Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and separates independently documented findings from government allegations. It shows how military confrontation, civilian harm and disrupted border access can weaken the cooperation required to address armed group activity. Prospective economic connectivity does not automatically overcome these security tensions. The paper recommends verifiable counterterrorism commitments, regular liaison, incident communication, civilian protection and predictable humanitarian access. It concludes that regional stability depends on sustained improvements in conduct and credible implementation mechanisms, rather than declarations of friendship or the intensity of military responses alone.