There was a projected increase in the absolute number of deaths in both sexes, especially in the South and Southeast regions, and the age-adjusted rates indicate a downward trend among men in all regions, despite remaining higher in the South.
Abstract
Abstract: The objective was to estimate temporal trends for lung cancer mortality in Brazil and its regions, stratified by sex and age group, from 2021 to 2045. This mortality projection study was based on lung cancer deaths (ICD-10: C33-C34) registered in the Brazilian Mortality Information System between 2001 and 2020, with redistribution of ill-defined causes. Crude and age-adjusted rates were calculated according to the 1960 world standard population. The projections adopted the Nordpred model in the R program, in 5-year periods from 2021 to 2045. There was a projected increase in the absolute number of deaths in both sexes, especially in the South and Southeast regions. The age-adjusted rates indicate a downward trend among men in all regions, despite remaining higher in the South. Among women, there was growth by 2025, followed by stability or a slight reduction by 2045, with the highest rates in the South Region. Population aging contributes to the increase in crude rates, even with the decline in adjusted rates. The projections suggest persistent regional inequalities, which may be associated with historical smoking patterns and unequal access to lung cancer diagnosis and treatment. The findings reinforce the need for regional prevention and control policies, including addressing smoking and considering the new forms of nicotine consumption, such as electronic cigarettes.
Cancer mortality in Alagoas is increasing steadily, characterized by premature deaths, geographic concentration, and care displacement, and decentralizing the oncology network, expanding screening for preventable tumors, and strengthening home palliative care are priority actions to reduce mortality.
Marianna Victória, C. Rocha, Adriana Martins da Conceição et al.· 0 citations
Background: Cutaneous melanoma accounts for most deaths from skin cancer, and mortality is consistently higher in men than in women. National trends in Brazil have not been characterized using population estimates rebased to the 2022 Census. Materials and methods: We conducted a nationwide ecological time-series study of deaths from cutaneous melanoma (ICD-10 C43) recorded in Brazil’s Mortality Information System from 2000 to 2024. Population denominators were obtained from the 2024 revision of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics projections, rebased to the 2022 Census. Rates were directly age-standardized to the 2022 Brazilian population; 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using the Fay-Feuer gamma method, a standard approach for deriving exact confidence limits for standardized rates from count data. National and subgroup trends were assessed using segmented log-linear regression, which identifies the calendar years in which a trend changes direction. Differences by sex, region, and age group were examined using age-adjusted negative binomial models with population offsets, which compare death rates between groups of different population sizes. The sex interaction was prespecified as a secondary, exploratory comparison and was not adjusted for multiple testing. The COVID-19 period was assessed using an interrupted time-series model with 2020 specified a priori. Results: Between 2000 and 2024, 38,346 deaths were attributed to cutaneous melanoma. Annual deaths increased from 1,027 to 2,031, whereas the age-standardized rate was essentially unchanged, from 0.91 to 0.92 per 100,000 population. Mortality increased by 0.83% per year (95% CI 0.52 to 1.14) until 2016 and declined by 1.12% per year (−1.69 to −0.54) thereafter. The full-period average annual percentage change (AAPC) was 0.17% (−0.01 to 0.36; p = 0.065). Men had higher rates throughout. Sex-specific segmented models showed an increase followed by a decline in men and an overall stable trend in women. An exploratory, non-multiplicity-adjusted interaction offered limited and inconsistent evidence of a more favorable trajectory in women than in men (p = 0.037). Mortality declined in all groups younger than 60 years and increased overall among adults aged 60 years or older, although the rise leveled off after 2015. The Southeast declined, the South was stable overall, and the North and Northeast increased from very low initial rates. The pandemic was associated with a one-time 6.60% downward shift in mortality in 2020, without a change in slope. Using population estimates not rebased to the 2022 Census changed the national AAPC from 0.17% (−0.01 to 0.36) to −0.39% (−0.60 to −0.18). Conclusions: The increasing number of melanoma deaths in Brazil was driven largely by population growth and aging rather than by a sustained increase in age-standardized mortality. A national decline began around 2016, but trends remained heterogeneous by age and region. The material change in the national AAPC after revision of the population denominators demonstrates that denominator vintage is not merely a technical consideration in long-term mortality studies but can materially affect epidemiological conclusions.
M. Ribeiro, M. S. Abizaid, Maria Eduarda K. Garcia et al.· Cureus· 0 citations
Changing magnitude and sociodemographic and territorial inequalities reveal changing magnitude and sociodemographic and territorial inequalities, supporting cause-specific prevention, timely diagnosis, comprehensive care, and improved mortality information.
Getúlio Antônio de Freitas, Alana Coêlho Maciel, Karla Danielly Xaveiro da Silva et al.· Revista de Estudos Interdisc...· 0 citations
BACKGROUND
Cancer remains a significant public health concern in Thailand, with substantial regional variation. This study quantified long-term temporal trends and projected future burdens of major cancers in Thailand's upper central region, in the context of evolving public health policies and changing epidemiological patterns.
METHODS
Population-based cancer data from 2000 to 2022 were obtained from the Lopburi Cancer Hospital. Temporal trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model. Future burdens were projected to 2040 using joinpoint regression, the age-period-cohort model, and the NordPred model.
RESULTS
Infection-related cancers declined while lifestyle-associated cancers increased. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and mortality rates (ASMRs) for liver and lung cancers declined among men. The colorectal cancer burden among men increased markedly, with ASIRs rising from 8.92 to 24.62 per 100,000 person-years (average annual percent change [AAPC] +4.72%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.46-6.47), and ASMRs increasing from 1.83 to 12.15 (AAPC +8.97%, 95% CI, 5.70-12.37). Among women, breast cancer incidence increased from 18.48 to 31.46 (AAPC +2.44%, 95% CI, 0.79-4.73), while mortality increased from 2.10 to 10.00 (AAPC +7.35%, 95% CI, 3.86-11.70). Cervical cancer declined in both incidence and mortality. Colorectal cancer incidence among women increased from 6.51 to 12.06 (AAPC +2.84%, 95% CI, 0.89-6.32), with rising mortality (AAPC +4.03%, 95% CI, 2.76-5.95).
CONCLUSIONS
Despite the declines in infection-related cancers, indicative of effective public health interventions, the overall cancer burden is projected to increase through 2040, mainly driven by increasing incidence and mortality of colorectal and breast cancers. This highlights the priority need for organized population-based screening programs and targeted interventions addressing modifiable lifestyle and dietary risk factors.
Saksin Simsin, Siriporn Kamsa-ard, Supot Kamsa-ard et al.· Cancer Epidemiology· 0 citations
Chronic kidney disease mortality increased in Brazil, with ageing of deaths, persistent male excess mortality, an increasing share among Black and Brown individuals, and regional differences from 2010 to 2024.
Alana Coêlho Maciel, Thiago Emmanuel Araujo dos Santos, Renato Sarmento dos Reis Moreno et al.· Revista de Estudos Interdisc...· 0 citations
Melanoma mortality in Brazil remained stable overall, but with marked age, social, and regional inequalities, and these findings support regionally tailored prevention, early diagnosis, improved health information quality, and equitable access to specialized oncologic care.
C. D. Da Silva, L. Piantino, Eliza Domingues Tran Sales et al.· Cancer Epidemiology· 0 citations
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