Global lung cancer burden, trends, and projections from 2010 to 2050: A population-level severity framework integrating DALYs-per-case and mortality-to-incidence ratio

Current burden, incidence trends, and future projections of pancreatic cancer in adults worldwide

Background Adult pancreatic cancer has a high mortality burden and poor survival. This study aimed to assess the current burden, geographic and socioeconomic differences, past incidence trends, and future burden. Methods Publicly available data were obtained from the Global Cancer Observatory 2022 (GLOBOCAN 2022), Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus (CI5plus), the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD), Human Development Reports, the United Nations M49 classification, and World Population Prospects 2024. Adults aged 20 years and older were included. GLOBOCAN 2022 was used to estimate the disease burden in 2022. National Human Development Index values were correlated with age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) using Spearman correlation analysis. CI5plus data from 2000 to 2017 were used to assess sex-specific incidence trends using estimated annual percentage change. GBD data and World Population Prospects 2024 were used to project future burden from 2024 to 2045 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results In 2022, there were 510,529 new cases and 467,290 deaths from pancreatic cancer worldwide among adults. Eastern Asia recorded the largest numbers of new cases and deaths. Western Europe had the highest ASIR and ASMR, while South Central Asia had the lowest. Countries with a very high Human Development Index (HDI) had the greatest burden, whereas those with a low HDI had the lowest. Adults aged 60–74 years accounted for the largest numbers of new cases and deaths. National Human Development Index was associated with ASIR and ASMR. Incidence trends from 2000 to 2017 varied across cancer registries and by sex. Projections showed increasing new cases and deaths from 2024 to 2045. Conclusions Adult pancreatic cancer remains a major global health burden. The burden is projected to continue increasing. These findings may be useful for adult pancreatic cancer prevention in different regions.

Analysis of the global, regional, and national burden of kidney cancer and projections until 2036

Kidney cancer is a growing public health concern. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, this study quantified its global burden from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to guide prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. The analysis of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2021 used GBD open data as a secondary dataset to examine global incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates. Spearman correlation analysis was used to assess the relationship between age-standardized rates and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) globally and across 21 specific regions. A decomposition analysis was performed using data on aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological trends to identify factors contributing to changes in kidney-cancer DALYs and deaths from 1990 to 2021. Future projections for incidence, mortality, and DALYs were generated using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model. The findings indicate a notable 16% increase in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for kidney cancer. Conversely, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased by approximately 4%. Additionally, there was an overall reduction of 11% in the age-standardized years of life lost (ASYR). Significant disparities in kidney cancer burden by sex and geographic location were identified. Increased body mass index and smoking were identified as the main contributors to kidney cancer. Population growth was found to play a role in the escalation of disease burden. The burden of kidney cancer is expected to diminish by 2036. The ASIR of renal cancer increases while the ASDR and ASYR decrease. Promising indications suggest a future decrease in the burden associated with kidney cancer.

Global burden and inequality of childhood kidney cancer (1990–2050): a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

Burden and future trajectory of pancreatic cancer in the EU-28, 1990-2023: A GBD 2023 analysis with projections to 2050.

BACKGROUND Pancreatic cancer is a highly lethal malignancy with a growing burden in aging populations. Updated evidence on the long-term burden and future trajectory of pancreatic cancer in the European Union (EU) remains limited. METHODS Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates, we assessed incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and prevalence for pancreatic cancer in the pre-Brexit EU-28 from 1990 to 2023. Absolute numbers and age-standardised rates (ASRs) were analyzed by year, sex, age group, country, and European subregion. Estimated annual percentage changes and joinpoint regression quantified temporal trends. Projections to 2050 were generated using exponential smoothing state-space models. RESULTS From 1990 to 2023, incident cases increased from 55,846 to 108,430, deaths from 55,649 to 105,272, and DALYs from 1226,259 to 2050,685, whereas ASRs increased more modestly. Males had higher burden in 2023, but female ASRs increased faster (incidence EAPC: 0.69% vs. 0.30%). Individuals aged ≥60 years accounted for >87% of cases. Finland, Denmark, Germany, Czechia, Hungary, and Latvia showed consistently high burden. By 2050, incident cases and deaths are projected to reach 142,765 and 138,080, respectively, with only modest increases in ASRs. CONCLUSIONS Pancreatic cancer burden in the EU has increased substantially and is projected to continue rising through 2050. Demographic change, particularly population ageing, contributes importantly to this growing burden, emphasizing the need for age-adapted and equitable cancer control strategies.

Global, regional, and national analysis of CNS cancers burden from 1990 to 2021 and forecast of disease trend over the next 25 years

Central nervous system (CNS) cancers are highly lethal and resource-intensive, imposing a substantial and uneven burden worldwide. Comparable long-term estimates of disease burden and future trends are needed to inform prevention strategies and health system planning across regions with different socioeconomic contexts. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study covering 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We estimated incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at global, regional, and national levels. Age-standardized rates were calculated using the GBD standard population to enable comparisons across populations with different age structures. Socio-demographic Index (SDI)–based analyses and inequality metrics were applied to assess socioeconomic disparities in disease burden. Decomposition analysis was used to quantify the contributions of population growth, population aging, and changes in age-specific rates to DALY trends. Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) models were employed to project future burden under the assumption that historical trends continue. In 2021, CNS cancer accounted for 0.36 million (95% UI: 0.31–0.41 million) new cases and 0.26 million (0.22–0.30 million) deaths worldwide, resulting in 8.91 million (7.61–10.36 million) DALYs. From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate increased from 3.75 to 4.28 per 1,00,000 population, whereas the age-standardized DALY rate declined by 11.97%, indicating improved survival and disease management despite rising case numbers. Global prevalence increased from 4,34,000 in 1990 to 9,75,000 in 2021, reflecting the growing cumulative burden of individuals living with CNS cancer. Marked socioeconomic gradients were observed: high-SDI regions generally showed higher incidence rates but lower DALY rates, whereas low- and low-middle-SDI regions bore a disproportionate share of disability and premature mortality. Decomposition analysis indicated that population aging and population growth were the primary drivers of increasing DALYs, partially offset by reductions in age-specific rates. The global burden of CNS cancer is increasing, with marked socioeconomic disparities. These results are descriptive and scenario-based and should be interpreted in light of the assumptions and limitations of the GBD framework.

Bladder cancer in Africa, 2010–2023: burden, geographic heterogeneity, demographic drivers, pandemic-era temporal changes, and projections to 2030

To characterize the burden, temporal trends, geographic heterogeneity, demographic components, pandemic-era deviations, and projected age-standardized rates of bladder cancer across Africa. We conducted an ecological secondary analysis of modeled Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 estimates for the GBD aggregate labeled “African Union” and 54 African country locations from 2010 to 2023. Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were assessed as counts and age-standardized rates (ASRs) per 100,000 population for both sexes combined. Trends were summarized using estimated annual percentage changes. Incidence trajectories were descriptively grouped using dynamic time warping, and changes in counts were partitioned into population-size, age-structure, and age-specific rate components using Das Gupta decomposition. Exploratory autoregressive integrated moving average models compared GBD-estimated rates in 2020–2023 with trajectories extrapolated from 2010 to 2019. Country-specific ASRs were projected through 2030 using log-linear models. For the GBD aggregate labeled “African Union,” incident cases increased from 16,357 in 2010 to 31,503 in 2023, prevalent cases from 73,806 to 147,599, deaths from 9,261 to 16,467, and DALYs from 232,414 to 415,746. Corresponding ASRs increased from 3.5 to 4.4 for incidence, 13.9 to 18.3 for prevalence, 2.2 to 2.6 for deaths, and 48.1 to 56.1 for DALYs. The highest estimated incidence ASRs in 2023 occurred in Tunisia, Malawi, Libya, Egypt, and Mali, while several countries with low estimated baseline rates had rapid relative increases. Population-size change was the largest decomposition component, accounting for 39.8%–58.8% of the increase across outcomes, with additional contributions from age structure and age-specific rates. GBD-estimated incidence, mortality, and DALY rates during 2020–2023 were above the extrapolated point forecasts; however, this exploratory analysis did not establish a causal pandemic effect. The primary projection models yielded higher fitted 2030 ASRs in a majority of countries, although results varied across training windows. GBD 2023 estimates indicate an increasing but geographically heterogeneous bladder cancer burden across Africa. Population growth was the largest contributor to increasing counts, while age-structure and age-specific rate changes also contributed. Regionally tailored prevention, diagnostic and treatment capacity, and improved cancer surveillance are needed. Pandemic-era deviations and 2030 projections should be interpreted as model-dependent rather than causal or definitive forecasts.