Extreme temperature, digital rural development, and grain production resilience in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Severe temperature extremes are an increasingly dangerous threat to the resilience of grain production and sustainable food systems, particularly in climate-sensitive river basins and large-scale grain producers. Though previous literature has considered the impact of climate change on crop yield and agricultural efficiency, there has been limited consideration of how extreme temperature events influence the multidimensional resilience of grain production systems and if digital rural development could enhance adaptive capacity. The present study explores the association between extreme temperature events and resilience of the grain production in the Yellow River Basin, an important grain-producing area of strategic significance with high climate sensitivity and ecological vulnerability, in China. On panel data of nine provinces from 2013 to 2022, we develop a grain production resilience index using resistance, recovery capacity, and transformation capacity and implement a two-way fixed-effect model, robustness test, endogeneity test, heterogeneity analysis, and a moderating effect model. As shown by the results, extreme temperature events have a significant negative relationship with grain production resilience, and this result holds even when special samples are excluded and the estimation model is replaced, additional control variables are added, and the variables are transformed. Analysis of heterogeneity shows that the negative correlation is more evident in non-major grain-producing areas and agricultural low-consumption areas, suggesting that infrastructure conditions, economic capacity, and regional support systems may be associated with vulnerability of agricultural production to climate shocks. The results of the moderating effect provide suggestive evidence that digital rural development may play a positive moderating role in the relationship between extreme temperature events and grain production resilience, which suggests that digital infrastructure, information services, and digital finance might be useful in mitigating climate-related production risks. These findings are valuable in the context of research on sustainable food systems as they connect the issues of climate adaptation, agricultural resilience, food security governance, and digital agriculture, and provide evidence that is policy relevant to improving the resilience of grain production in other climate-sensitive river basins and grain-producing regions.