Copper supply chain decarbonization for the energy transition must maximize copper recovery

Abstract

Copper is the non-interchangeable and fungible conductor for every major sustainable energy transition technology, yet supply is constrained as demand accelerates. Expanding solar, wind, battery storage, and electric cars requires carbon-intensive copper production. In this perspective, a conceptual metric, Decarbonization Enabling Potential (DEP), is introduced to guide systems-level recovery from copper orebodies to downstream smelters. Illustrative examples of this Key Performance Indicator (KPI) show that even modest increases in recovery could unlock substantial lifetime carbon savings if that copper is deployed in clean energy systems. These findings highlight the need for dual metrics: one focused on the value-in-use of copper production and another on decarbonization. Copper production is emissions intensive, but recovering less copper could limit the clean energy technologies that depend on it. In this Perspective, the metric Decarbonisation Enabling Potential is introduced to quantify this supply chain trade-off.