Coupled drought–land use dynamics and agricultural resilience in mainland Southeast Asia

Abstract

Drought is initiated by climatic anomalies, but its development and consequences often unfold as a coupled socio-ecological process shaped by interactions among land use, water infrastructure, resource management, and governance. This coupling is particularly pronounced in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), where strong monsoon dependence, rapid land-system transformation, expanding hydraulic infrastructure, and intensive water use influence how climatic water deficits propagate through hydrological, agricultural, and livelihood systems. Drawing on an integrative narrative review and an illustrative analysis of standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index data, we characterize long-term variability and spatially heterogeneous changes in mean water balance and moderate-drought frequency between a historical baseline (1902–1979) and the recent period (2000–2023). These hydroclimatic conditions interact with deforestation, plantation and irrigation expansion, groundwater extraction, flow regulation, and pollution. Irrigation, groundwater pumping, and reservoir storage can buffer short-term water deficits for some users. Land-use change, over-extraction, altered flow regimes, and pollution can intensify dry-season, downstream, or long-term water stress for others. The resulting propagation from meteorological to agricultural and hydrological drought has produced recurrent crop, aquaculture, and livelihood losses and heightened rural poverty and migration pressures. Beyond diagnosing these coupled risks, the review synthesizes adaptive and governance responses across multiple scales. Evidence from regional initiatives highlights promising but uneven progress in crop diversification, deployment of drought-resistant varieties, micro-irrigation and rainwater harvesting, early-warning systems, and ecosystem restoration. Integrated Water Resources Management and transboundary cooperation through the Mekong River Commission provide coordination frameworks, though their effectiveness remains constrained by gaps in capacity, finance, equity, and enforceable authority. Persistent weaknesses in monitoring, forecasting, impact evaluation, and inclusive implementation constrain long-term resilience. We conclude that sustaining MSEA’s agrarian and aquatic economies requires coordinated investment in data integration, context-appropriate land and water interventions, and inclusive basin-scale governance. This synthesis provides a transferable framework for understanding and managing drought in other regions where climatic variability interacts with rapid land-use change, water infrastructure development, and uneven governance.