GLOBAL TRADE RESILIENCE UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The article addresses the problem of ensuring trade resilience under conditions of increasing global uncertainty, market fragmentation, and intensifying geoeconomic competition. The rele­vance of the study follows from the transformation of the global trade system, where external shocks, such as pandemics, tariff restrictions, supply chain disruptions, and climate-related risks, have become systemic rather than episodic, making trade resilience a key determinant of national competitiveness. The hypothesis of the study states that trade resilience is determined by the level of diver­sification of trade linkages, the depth of integra­tion into global and regional production networks, and the quality of the institutional environment shaping regional resilience clusters. The aim of the article is to identify the patterns underlying the formation of trade resilience under conditions of global uncertainty and to substan­tiate the influence of structural and regional factors on the ability of economies to withstand external trade shocks. The methodological framework is based on comparative analysis combined with an index-based approach. The empirical foundation relies on the Global Trade Resilience Index (GTRI), used for cross-country and cross-regional comparisons. The findings empirically confirm the proposed hypothesis. Higher levels of trade diversification and deeper integration into production networks reduce vulnerability to external shocks and enhance adaptive capacity, while institutional quality acts as a system-forming factor that strengthens coordination and predictability. The conducted analysis revealed significant regional hetero­geneity in the impact of the U.S. isolationist tariff policy: European economies demonstrate the highest resilience, whereas Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam exhibit greater vulnerability. The obtained results highlight the need to implement policies aimed at diversifying trade flows, deepening integration into production networks, and strengthening institutional capacity. The analysis reveals significant regional hetero­geneity in the impact of U.S. isolationist tariff policies: European economies demonstrate the highest resilience, whereas economies highly dependent on the U.S. market exhibit greater vulnerability. The results substantiate the need for policies focused on diversification, deeper integ­ra­tion, and strengthening institutional capacity to ensure trade resilience.