Analysis of the balance sheets of credit institutions in Russia

Abstract

Subject. This article looks at the balance sheets of credit institutions in Russia. Objectives. The article aims to identify trends, relationships, and risks in the structure of bank balance sheets to develop strategic and tactical recommendations for optimizing the management of assets and liabilities in credit institutions. Methods. For the study, I used a comprehensive time series analysis together with econometric analysis, building exponential trends and assessing their quality, calculating correlation coefficients, as well as predictive modeling. Results. The article shows steady asset growth with periods of decline and recovery and points out that the loan portfolio is the main driver of growth, while securities are the second most important and predictable component. The article also provides detailed quantitative forecasts for major components of assets and liabilities across three scenarios, offers recommendations, outlines strategic priorities, and suggests tactical measures. Relevance. The study demonstrates the potential and possibilities of combining financial analysis with data science methods and will be useful to regulators when assessing systemic risks and the stability of the banking sector, to CFOs of credit institutions in strategic planning and business model diversification, and to analysts and investors when analyzing trends in the banking sector and evaluating the investment attractiveness of credit institutions.