Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Green Spaces in Shrinking Cities

Abstract

Urban shrinkage causes inefficient land utilization and landscape fragmentation. Green spaces are critical nature-based solutions for the sustainable development of shrinking cities, and play an important role in enhancing urban environmental quality and promoting residents’ physical and mental well-being. Using landscape ecological indices (PLAND, NP, and LPI) coupled with the spatial Durbin model (SDM), geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), this study investigates the dynamics and influencing factors of green space in shrinking cities from 2000 to 2020. The results show that cities with population shrinkage experience the concurrent expansion and fragmentation of green spaces, cities with economic shrinkage demonstrate modest changes accompanied by low fragmentation, and cities with social shrinkage face a decline in green spaces with reduced patch numbers. The dynamics of green space are driven by the interplay of socioeconomic and natural factors, where the former operate at broader spatial scales and the latter exert localized influences. Consequently, spatial governance of urban green spaces should be implemented through multidimensional and multi-scalar coordinated strategies.