Forest Fire Area, Industrial GRDP, Population Density, and Environmental Quality in Indonesia

Abstract

Purpose— This study examines how forest fire area, industrial-sector gross regional domestic product (GRDP), and population density are associated with Indonesia’s Environmental Quality Index (Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup, IKLH) at the provincial level. Research Methodology— A quantitative panel-data design uses 150 province-year observations from 30 Indonesian provinces during 2020–2024. Common-, fixed-, and random-effects specifications are considered, with the Chow and Hausman tests supporting a fixed-effects model. Results— Forest fire area is not statistically associated with IKLH in the selected model, whereas industrial GRDP and population density show positive conditional associations. The full fixed-effects specification is statistically significant, but its overall model test includes province effects and therefore does not isolate the joint contribution of the three substantive regressors. Research limitations/Implications— The analysis covers three predictors, 30 provinces, and five years; omitted time effects, spatial dependence, and robust inference limit generalization. The findings support continued fire prevention, cleaner industrial development, and environmental infrastructure in densely populated areas. Originality— The study integrates ecological, industrial, and demographic pressures within one provincial panel framework while controlling for time-invariant provincial heterogeneity.